More Money, Fewer Students: Fairfax Schools’ Trust Crisis
Stephanie Lundquist-Arora is a contributor for IW Features, The Federalist and the Washington Examiner, a mother in Fairfax County, Virginia, an author and the Fairfax chapter leader of the Independent Women’s Network. Her articles have also appeared in National Review, Fox News Digital, The Daily Signal and Townhall. Originally appeared on EdNews Virginia.
There has been a significant decline in enrollment in Virginia’s largest public school district. Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) experienced the largest drop in student enrollment of any district in the state from 2015 to 2025, according to the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. While neighboring Prince William County Public Schools — the state’s second-largest district — grew by 3,970 students, FCPS saw a decrease of 6,894 students during the same period.
It’s not that the number of school-aged children in Fairfax County is declining — in fact, the opposite is true. From 2019 to 2025, the population of school-aged children increased by more than 9,000. But families with greater financial means and/or flexibility are seeking alternative educational options as concerns grow about the performance and outcomes of the district’s public schools.
As FCPS leaders request $4.1 billion in the proposed fiscal year 2027 budget, many taxpayers are also expressing frustration. Critics rightly argue that increased spending has not translated into improved student outcomes. From 2019 to 2025, average per-pupil expenditures rose by more than $6,000, while average SAT scores declined by 35 points over the same period.
Not surprisingly, FCPS stopped publishing SAT scores on its website several years ago. In response, the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance regularly submits Freedom of Information Act requests and shares the results publicly.
| Year | # in FCPS | FCPS Budget | $ Per Pupil | Avg. SAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 187,521 | $3.0B | $15,998 | 1218 |
| 2020 | 188,355 | $3.1B | $16,458 | 1211 |
| 2021 | 179,748 | $3.4B | $18,915 | 1201 |
| 2022 | 178,421 | $3.3B | $18,495 | 1185 |
| 2023 | 180,527 | $3.5B | $19,387 | 1181 |
| 2024 | 181,153 | $3.7B | $20,424 | 1178 |
| 2025 | 177,007 | $3.9B | $22,033 | 1183 |
Many families in the county appear to recognize these trends and are choosing to withdraw their children from what was once considered a high-performing public school district. Consequently, the percentage of school-aged children in Fairfax County not attending public school increased from 8.6% in 2019 to 17.4% in 2025.
| Year | FCPS Enrollment | Private School | Homeschooled | Total Students | % Not in FCPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 187,521 | 14,500 | 3,247 | 205,268 | 8.6% |
| 2020 | 188,355 | 17,000 | 5,912 | 211,267 | 10.8% |
| 2021 | 179,748 | 20,000 | 4,504 | 204,252 | 12.0% |
| 2022 | 178,421 | 25,000 | 3,795 | 207,216 | 13.9% |
| 2023 | 180,527 | 28,000 | 3,727 | 212,254 | 14.9% |
| 2024 | 181,153 | 31,000 | 3,749 | 215,902 | 16.1% |
| 2025 | 177,007 | 33,435 | 3,968 | 214,410 | 17.4% |
Whether driven by concerns about academic outcomes, school climate, transparency, or broader policy decisions, the data suggest that public confidence in the district is eroding. If FCPS hopes to reverse its enrollment losses and rebuild trust, district leaders will need to do more than request larger budgets.
Clear accountability, measurable academic improvement, and genuine engagement with families will be essential to restoring the district’s reputation as a destination for educational excellence. Until then, throwing more money at the problem is futile.
