A New York Times headline writer observes that President Trump is sending “mixed” messages on when the Iran war will end. Hardly surprising in a ten-day old intervention. Meanwhile, President Trump’s advisers are said to be urging him to find an “exit ramp.”
But how is the war going? An editorial in the Wall Street Journal, which has strongly supported the war in its opinion pages, argues that right now Iran is “not winning” but that could change:
Is it time for President Trump to call off the bombing and declare victory in Iran? You’d think so judging by the panic in Washington as the price of oil spikes. That certainly is the fondest wish of the ayatollahs, who know they’re losing.
The reality inside Iran and the region is that the U.S. and Israel continue to make progress. The regime loses more of its military each day, along with the ability to hurt its neighbors. The Israelis estimate 70% to 75% of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and the U.S. has destroyed at least 43 Iranian ships.
On Monday the United Arab Emirates received only 18 drones, down from 126 a day over the past week. We’ll soon see if that was a blip or a meaningful decline….
President Trump said that the war will be over “soon,” but Iran’s rump regime pushed back against this assertion, and the President then vowed to hit ‘em harder. U.K.
There’s something new and different in the choice of Khamenei Jr. as Supreme Leader. “Mojtaba Khamenei Brings Monarchy Back to Iran” is the headline on a piece by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh. They write:
Khamenei’s son and successor, the Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has neither his father’s experience nor Khomeini’s pedigree. His ascent marks the collapse of the last egalitarian pillar of the revolution, namely that the mullahs, unlike decadent Persian shahs, don’t do dynastic succession. With Mojtaba, the revolution has come full circle. Even without regime change, monarchy has returned to Iran….
In the turbulent politics of the Islamic Republic, violence and terror have always been a means of political control. But Mojtaba’s generation of militants has faced more popular insurrections as the revolution has lost much of its luster. Even in the context of Iran’s ruthless politics, this generation shows a particular attachment to terrorism. Violence is the mandatory response to those seeking to undermine the regime. The recent uprising demonstrated the lengths to which this generation will go to preserve God’s will manifested.
Mojtaba will continue his father’s search for foreign devils.
Mojtaba has been keeping a low profile. So much so that the Middle East Forum Observer speculated (flirting with a Babylon Bee parody!”) that “Elevating a Dead Man Would Be Far-Fetched, so Mojtaba Khamenei May Be Injured and in Hiding.”
The Wall Street Journal’s Global View columnist Walter Russell Mead explores three ways the war might end. The likeliest, he concludes, is that the U.S. largely clears the Gulf but that the current regime survives, solving nothing fundamental but preserving a fragile balance of power in a vital part of the world. This obviously is not the optimal scenario. Intriguing: Douglas Feith, a George W. Bush Defense Department official, says “Hold on tight. Trump is trying something new in Iran. Critics demanding a “day after” plan are confusing this presidency with that of George W. Bush.” Still, Mollie Hemingway indicates GOP voters will grow restive if this drags on too long.
One More Thing. The Iranian Women’s Soccer team. Australia has granted asylum to the “lionesses who roared with silence,” (by not singing the regime national anthem), and could face death if returned to Iran. This Just In: Khamenei Sr. said Jr. was not fit to lead. Oh, and he’s impotent.
“The N.Y. Terrorist Attack and DHS Funding” is the headline of a Wall Street Journal editorial. Because of the Iran war, this is a time of heightened concern over national security and public safety. Yet, according to the editorial, Democrats refuse to restore funding to the Department of Homeland Security:
Inflicting pain on the public is a bad negotiating tactic, and the DHS shutdown is being felt acutely at the nation’s airports, as the Transportation Security Administration deals with employees calling out of work. … The bigger worry, though, is that there might be a security lapse that makes this failure to fund DHS look in retrospect like the height of partisan recklessness. In addition to airport security screeners, DHS includes the Coast Guard (which has personnel who support the U.S. Navy in Bahrain), the Secret Service, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Democrats insist they won’t restore DHS funding without an overhaul of ICE, but they are running a big risk if there is a successful terror attack. After the attempt in Manhattan, the wisest move for Mr. Schumer would be to quit posturing and pass the bill.
Meet the Gracie Mansion ISIS-loving wannabe bombing suspects (via the New York Post):
Emir Balat, 18, and 19-year-old Ibrahim Kayumi, drove to Manhattan from their upscale Pennsylvania homes with the intent to cause mayhem and kill – all in the name of the Islamic State, according to the federal complaint against them….
When he arrived at an NYPD precinct, Balat allegedly asked cops for pen and paper – and scribbled a disturbing manifesto proclaiming his extremist beliefs.
“All praise is due to Allah lord of all worlds,” he allegedly wrote. “I pledge my allegiance [sic] to the Islamic State. Die in your rage yu [sic] kuffar.”
New York Mayor Mamdani has taken heat, as you know, for his response to the dueling protests (one anti-Muslim and the other pro-Isis) at Gracie Mansion. FYI: It was the Isis guys (who made today’s New York Post cover) who had the bomb.
Speaking of Gracie Mansion, guess who scored a coveted invitation to break the Ramadan fast there with New York’s first family? The Mayor hosted anti-Israel activist and accused Hamas sympathizer Mahmoud Khalil, and his familyfor dinner at Gracie Mansion for the holy month of Ramadan. The chitchat had to be interesting.
Highly Recommended. “The Moment Mass Immigration Started,” by Alicia Nieves, for Compact Magazine. Mass illegal immigration started before most of us were aware of the implications and with canny activists who knew how to exploit loopholes:
Violence, poverty, and political instability can explain why individuals want to leave their countries. But they do not explain why migration toward the United States accelerates suddenly at specific moments in time. …
What emerged beginning in 2014 was a massive surge of a new class of migrants—unaccompanied minors and families with children—who were taking advantage of an emergent process created by the gradual accumulative effect of various discretionary policies and legal precedents interacting with one another.
Illegal immigration is a safety issue of our time. The D.C. Examiner has a recommended piece about how Virginia’s Fairfax County’s sanctuary policies led to an illegal immigrant murdering an innocent woman. Mackerel Snapper News. Ms. Must was disheartened—but hardly surprised when Pope Leo XIV addressed the crowd in St. Peter’s Square Sunday after the Angelus and implicitly came out against U.S. policy in Iran. Bill McGurn gently takes the Holy Father to task in “Homilies Won’t Liberate Iran.” McGurn writes:
At the moment the Vatican is almost guaranteeing its wisdom will be ignored by those who need it most. “The net result of the churches’ concessions to the political left has been to take religious leaders out of serious conversation with policymakers on matters of war and peace, leaving them to lob minatory rhetorical grenades from the bleachers,” Catholic theologian George Weigel wrote in 2024. Nearly 40 years ago Mr. Weigel wrote his book “Tranquillitas Ordinis,” arguing that the real goal of war is an order rooted in justice and freedom.
This may sound harsh, but it’s necessary to say. The Catholic Church and its last few popes have understood only the destructive force of war. They appear to have given little thought to the terrible consequences for innocent people when soft words are offered as a substitute for tough but necessary action. …