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Who’s Winning Iran War? Nepo Supreme Leader Keeping Low Profile. Guess Who Came to Dinner at Gracie Mansion? Can Homilies Liberate Iran? More

A New York Times headline writer observes that President Trump is sending “mixed” messages on when the Iran war will end. Hardly surprising in a ten-day old intervention. Meanwhile, President Trump’s advisers are said to be urging him to find an “exit ramp.”

But how is the war going? An editorial in the Wall Street Journal, which has strongly supported the war in its opinion pages, argues that right now Iran is “not winning” but that could change:

Is it time for President Trump to call off the bombing and declare victory in Iran? You’d think so judging by the panic in Washington as the price of oil spikes. That certainly is the fondest wish of the ayatollahs, who know they’re losing.

The reality inside Iran and the region is that the U.S. and Israel continue to make progress. The regime loses more of its military each day, along with the ability to hurt its neighbors. The Israelis estimate 70% to 75% of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and the U.S. has destroyed at least 43 Iranian ships.

On Monday the United Arab Emirates received only 18 drones, down from 126 a day over the past week. We’ll soon see if that was a blip or a meaningful decline….

President Trump said that the war will be over “soon,” but Iran’s rump regime pushed back against this assertion, and the President then vowed to hit ‘em harder. U.K.

There’s something new and different in the choice of Khamenei Jr. as Supreme Leader. “Mojtaba Khamenei Brings Monarchy Back to Iran” is the headline on a piece by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh. They write:

Khamenei’s son and successor, the Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has neither his father’s experience nor Khomeini’s pedigree. His ascent marks the collapse of the last egalitarian pillar of the revolution, namely that the mullahs, unlike decadent Persian shahs, don’t do dynastic succession. With Mojtaba, the revolution has come full circle. Even without regime change, monarchy has returned to Iran….

In the turbulent politics of the Islamic Republic, violence and terror have always been a means of political control. But Mojtaba’s generation of militants has faced more popular insurrections as the revolution has lost much of its luster. Even in the context of Iran’s ruthless politics, this generation shows a particular attachment to terrorism. Violence is the mandatory response to those seeking to undermine the regime. The recent uprising demonstrated the lengths to which this generation will go to preserve God’s will manifested.

Mojtaba will continue his father’s search for foreign devils.

Mojtaba has been keeping a low profile. So much so that the Middle East Forum Observer speculated (flirting with a Babylon Bee parody!”) that “Elevating a Dead Man Would Be Far-Fetched, so Mojtaba Khamenei May Be Injured and in Hiding.”

The Wall Street Journal’s Global View columnist Walter Russell Mead explores three ways the war might end. The likeliest, he concludes, is that the U.S. largely clears the Gulf but that the current regime survives, solving nothing fundamental but preserving a fragile balance of power in a vital part of the world. This obviously is not the optimal scenario. Intriguing: Douglas Feith, a George W. Bush Defense Department official, says “Hold on tight. Trump is trying something new in Iran. Critics demanding a “day after” plan are confusing this presidency with that of George W. Bush.” Still, Mollie Hemingway indicates GOP voters will grow restive if this drags on too long. 

One More Thing. The Iranian Women’s Soccer team. Australia has granted asylum to the “lionesses who roared with silence,” (by not singing the regime national anthem), and could face death if returned to Iran. This Just In: Khamenei Sr. said Jr. was not fit to lead. Oh, and he’s impotent.

“The N.Y. Terrorist Attack and DHS Funding” is the headline of a Wall Street Journal editorial. Because of the Iran war, this is a time of heightened concern over national security and public safety. Yet, according to the editorial, Democrats refuse to restore funding to the Department of Homeland Security:

Inflicting pain on the public is a bad negotiating tactic, and the DHS shutdown is being felt acutely at the nation’s airports, as the Transportation Security Administration deals with employees calling out of work. … The bigger worry, though, is that there might be a security lapse that makes this failure to fund DHS look in retrospect like the height of partisan recklessness. In addition to airport security screeners, DHS includes the Coast Guard (which has personnel who support the U.S. Navy in Bahrain), the Secret Service, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Democrats insist they won’t restore DHS funding without an overhaul of ICE, but they are running a big risk if there is a successful terror attack. After the attempt in Manhattan, the wisest move for Mr. Schumer would be to quit posturing and pass the bill.

Meet the Gracie Mansion ISIS-loving wannabe bombing suspects (via the New York Post):

Emir Balat, 18, and 19-year-old Ibrahim Kayumi, drove to Manhattan from their upscale Pennsylvania homes with the intent to cause mayhem and kill – all in the name of the Islamic State, according to the federal complaint against them….

When he arrived at an NYPD precinct, Balat allegedly asked cops for pen and paper – and scribbled a disturbing manifesto proclaiming his extremist beliefs.

“All praise is due to Allah lord of all worlds,” he allegedly wrote. “I pledge my allegiance [sic] to the Islamic State. Die in your rage yu [sic] kuffar.”

New York Mayor Mamdani has taken heat, as you know, for his response to the dueling protests (one anti-Muslim and the other pro-Isis) at Gracie Mansion. FYI: It was the Isis guys (who made today’s New York Post cover) who had the bomb.

Speaking of Gracie Mansion, guess who scored a coveted invitation to break the Ramadan fast there with New York’s first family? The Mayor hosted anti-Israel activist and accused Hamas sympathizer Mahmoud Khalil, and his familyfor dinner at Gracie Mansion for the holy month of Ramadan. The chitchat had to be interesting.

Highly Recommended. “The Moment Mass Immigration Started,” by Alicia Nieves, for Compact Magazine. Mass illegal immigration started before most of us were aware of the implications and with canny activists who knew how to exploit loopholes:

Violence, poverty, and political instability can explain why individuals want to leave their countries. But they do not explain why migration toward the United States accelerates suddenly at specific moments in time. …

What emerged beginning in 2014 was a massive surge of a new class of migrants—unaccompanied minors and families with children—who were taking advantage of an emergent process created by the gradual accumulative effect of various discretionary policies and legal precedents interacting with one another.

Illegal immigration is a safety issue of our time. The D.C. Examiner has a recommended piece about how Virginia’s Fairfax County’s sanctuary policies led to an illegal immigrant murdering an innocent woman. Mackerel Snapper News. Ms. Must was disheartened—but hardly surprised when Pope Leo XIV addressed the crowd in St. Peter’s Square Sunday after the Angelus and implicitly came out against U.S. policy in Iran. Bill McGurn gently takes the Holy Father to task in “Homilies Won’t Liberate Iran.” McGurn writes:

At the moment the Vatican is almost guaranteeing its wisdom will be ignored by those who need it most. “The net result of the churches’ concessions to the political left has been to take religious leaders out of serious conversation with policymakers on matters of war and peace, leaving them to lob minatory rhetorical grenades from the bleachers,” Catholic theologian George Weigel wrote in 2024. Nearly 40 years ago Mr. Weigel wrote his book “Tranquillitas Ordinis,” arguing that the real goal of war is an order rooted in justice and freedom.

This may sound harsh, but it’s necessary to say. The Catholic Church and its last few popes have understood only the destructive force of war. They appear to have given little thought to the terrible consequences for innocent people when soft words are offered as a substitute for tough but necessary action. …

New Supreme Leader. Mamdani Criticized for Response to Dueling Protests. Inevitable Happens: David French Falls for Talarico. More

From Tehran to New York’s iconic Gracie Mansion, where there were dueling protests this weekend—one anti-Muslim and one pro-ISIS (!), it’s been an unquiet world.

Whether Iran’s despotic regime will fall soon is the question on everybody’s mind. The Free Press early this morning was leading with a possible energy crisis triggered by Iran.

Not surprisingly, Iran “projected defiance” by picking Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, son of the late Ayatollah, as Supreme Leader. President Trump finds the new Khamanei just bad as the other one.

Meanwhile, a U.K. Telegraph opinion column headline proclaims that Iran’s malevolent new Ayatollah shows the regime has learnt nothing. Tehran is fighting with jets dating back to the Vietnam era. War Secretary Pete Hegseth tells CBS that the U.S. will do whatever it takes to topple Iran’s regime:

“We’re willing to go as far as we need in order to be successful,” Hegseth told CBS News’s Major Garrett during a “60 Minutes” sit-down interview that aired Sunday night.

“We reserve the right. We would be completely unwise if we did not reserve the right to take any particular option, whether it included boots on the ground or not boots on the ground.”

There is a media divide over whether to support President Trump’s Iran intervention. The American Conservative [TAC] opposes the intervention and warns against arming the Kurds to fight in Iran (it is “madness” and will achieve nothing but instability and carnage”). The Wall Street Journal, whose opinion pages have supported the intervention, states the “risks” of arming the Kurds in an editorial:.

The greatest risk is that a Kurdish military front inside Iran could let the regime play to latent Iranian nationalism. So far the Iranian public hasn’t rallied to defend the regime even under relentless U.S. and Israeli bombing.

Allyssia Finley, also of the Wall Street Journal, writes that the United States’ oil and gas dominance has weakened Iran. The piece most supportive of the Trump administration’s Iran intervention this morning comes from Joshua  Muravchik, also writing for the WSJ:

For years since the U.S. stumbled in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have been on our back foot, and the forces of anti-Americanism have been gaining strength and confidence. Iran and Cuba present Mr. Trump a chance to reverse that trend. It would be a valuable prize for the country and for him, an honor far nobler than the Nobel

Also an optimistic view, Israeli historian Benny Morris proposes that “the war with Iran is reshaping the entire Middle East from the Gulf States to Lebanon with surprising speed.”  The Wall Street Journal’s Elliott Kaufman had a weekend interview with historian Ali M. Ansari who says that the Iranian regime is facing a crisis like never before in the current situation. What if the reactionary Iranian regime was being consumed by its own pathologies even before the Trump intervention? An intriguing notion, explored by Tim Black at Spiked On-line. Jonathan Rosen explores the fatwa—the Iranian weapon stronger than bombs—that might remain with us even if the regime falls.

Iran isn’t the only place having an issue with bombing this weekend. “Devil’s Work” scream the New York Post front-page headline.

Seem that demonstrators hurled an explosive known as the “Mother of Satan” in front of Gracie Mansion, the official residence of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

It was a confusing double protest in front of Gracie Mansion: a protest against Muslim influence in New York followed by a pro-Muslim protest. Manhattan Borough President Brad Hoylman-Sigal attributed the explosive hurling to the wrong protest group:

Hoylman-Sigal issued a statement on X Saturday claiming, in part, “White Christian Nationalists led a roaming trail of Islamophobia and antisemitism today on Manhattan’s Upper East Side at Gracie Mansion where they targeted our mayor with an incendiary device.”

The borough president took down the statement before it was publicly revealed Sunday that two pro-Muslim demonstrators, identified as Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi, were arrested in the incident. Federal authorities are working with the NYPD on the case.

The “Mother of Satan” hurlers are described as self-radicalized ISIS protesters. The original, anti-Muslim protest was lead by a right-wing agitator Jake Lang, reportedly a pardoned January 6 protestorMiranda Devine argues in an impassioned column arguing that the New York Mayor’s response was telling:

Mayor Zohran Mamdani showed his true colors over the weekend when he responded to the attempted ISIS-inspired bombing of an anti-Muslim protest by first condemning “white supremacy” before getting around to saying “violence at a protest is never acceptable.”

That’s one way of putting it.

It took NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch to issue her own statement for the full gravity of the attack to be officially acknowledged.

Indeed, the Mayor seems to have plumb forgotten the ISIS guys in his response. Adding to the heady mix—or maybe not adding to the mix because of social media shielding, the Mayor’s wife, Rama Duwaji’s apparent enthusiasm for the October 7 massacre of Israelis has come to light.

The mind-boggling, multi-billion-dollar welfare fraud in Minnesota appears to be just the beginning. A Wall Street Journal editorial on the “Medicaid Autism Racket” lays out just how easy it is to defraud government programs with vague behavioral therapy diagnoses:

Behavioral therapy is an especially ripe target for people looking to game Medicaid. Diagnostic standards can be elastic, and states provide little oversight of providers and pay claims without requiring verification of treatment or benefits. While insurers that administer Medicaid benefits have an incentive to police fraud, autism treatment has become a fee-for-service free-for-all.

Minnesota is a case study. According to a federal complaint, 27-year-old Abdinajib Hassan Yussuf set up a fly-by-night autism center claiming to provide one-on-one therapy for autistic children. He allegedly worked with medical professionals to have children diagnosed with autism and paid kickbacks to parents to enroll them in his center. … Prosecutors last fall brought charges against a 28-year-old Minnesotan woman in a similar scheme that included bilking the government for meals and transportation….

The welfare-state fraud story is turning out to be enormous. As the evidence emerges, keep in mind that the root problem isn’t fraudsters, who are always with us. It’s the programs that make it so easy for criminals to scam.

More on the American taxpayer spigot. Fox Digital has a report that non-U.S. citizens will no longer be able to access SBA loans. Ms. Must’s first reaction—you mean to tell me that non-citizens were receiving SBA loans?

New York Times “conservative” columnist David French has lost his heart to Texas senatorial aspirant James Talarico, the Democratic nominee and the Presbyterian seminarian who says that God is “non-binary” and there are six genders. More like Mr. French has lost his mind, writes The Federalist’s Chris Bray:

In a moment we should have seen coming, New York Times columnist David French has just gushed out a shameless celebration of Talarico’s insane nonsense, every word of which should qualify the worst op-ed prostitute in America for urgent psychiatric intervention. Here’s a whole paragraph: “Or, to put it another way, Talarico is one of the few openly Christian politicians in the United States who acts like a Christian, and by acting like a Christian he reveals a profound contrast with so many members of the MAGA Christian movement that’s dominated American political life for 10 years.”

Speaking of Mr. Talarico… you remember his clever high jinks with Stephen Colbert, when the two claimed that incorrectly Talarico was being censored. Talarico was originally being denied airtime because of the intricacies of the “Equal Time” rule. An op-ed in the Wall Street Journal addresses the Talarico ruse and goes on to explain that the “Equal Time” rule is obsolete and should be ditched.

The State of the Union. Dems Mull: Silent Resistance or Outright Protest. War in Paradise. Gavin Newsom’s SAT. Mamdani’s Personality Transplant. Epstein Mania and Trial by Jury. More

President Trump tonight delivers the first State of the Union address of his second term. The President is expected to use the SOTU to assess that the United States is ‘strong, prosperous and respected’ as it enters its 250th year:

President Trump will use his State of the Union address to sell the public on the economy and unveil new measures meant to lower costs, as Republicans try to address voters’ concerns ahead of the midterm elections later this year.

The official theme of the speech, according to White House officials familiar with the draft: “America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected,” a reference to the 250th anniversary of the country’s founding. The address will emphasize the idea of American exceptionalism, and the president is planning to weave in stories of Americans who say they have benefited from his policies, the officials said.

Fox Digital also looks to tonight.

Coming shortly after the Supreme Court’s ruling against the Trump tariffs, the stakes for the President could be even higher than usual.

The question for the out of power party tonight is: “‘Silent defiance’ or outright opposition? Democrats split over how to confront Trump” MS Now informs us. They tried the first and made fools of themselves last year (it was a presidential speech but not a SOTU) and thus Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is leaning towards the silent treatment this year.

Bummer. But some will boycott the SOTU and there will be an array of options outside the House chamber (where the speech is delivered):

One of those events, dubbed the “People’s State of the Union,” will take place on the National Mall beginning shortly before Trump’s speech is scheduled to begin. Sponsored by liberal activist groups, including MoveOn Civic Action, it’s set to feature a number of prominent Democrats from both chambers, including Sens. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), Ed Markey (Mass.) and Chris Murphy (Conn.), and Reps. Veronica Escobar (Texas), Pramila Jayapal (Wash.) and Greg Casar (Texas), who heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Another countermessaging event, “The State of the Swamp,” will be staged at the National Press Club near the White House. That gathering is also expected to attract some high-profile Democrats, including Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.) and Reps. Seth Moulton (Mass.), Eric Swalwell (Calif.) and Dan Goldman (N.Y.). At least two other Democrats, Reps. Jason Crow (Colo.) and Eugene Vindman (Va.), have said they will participate in the event but also attend Trump’s speech later in the evening.

And if Eugene Vindman and Dim Dan are not enough star-power, Joy Reid was touted last week as a “sober, centrist” voice at the People’s SOTU. Half dozen or so Democrats have invited Jeffrey Epstein victims to be their guests, presumably because hope springs eternal that next 3 million documents dump will bring down the President. Meanwhile, Team USA hockey star Jack Hughes says the guys are super excited to meet President Trump tonight.

Ruy Texeira of The Free Press writes that the State of the Union has been “overstated:” he argues that the speeches used to make history but are now mired in tribal warfare. Nothing Trump could say will change that. Former George W. Bush speech writer Bill McGurn makes the case for the SOTU. A White House invitation for also triumphant women’s hockey team either was not sent or was declined.

“War in Paradise” blares the New York Post cover headline. “Mexico just decapitated its most dangerous cartel. That means war,” award-winning Mexican journalist Leon Krauze writes in the Washington Post. He urges President Claudia Sheinbaum to stay the course. A piece at Unherd argues that El Mencho death shows President Trump’s growing influence in Mexico. Bloomberg says Sheinbaum has crossed her Rubicon.

More Snow. A record snowfall blankets the Northeast. In response, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has softened his policy forbidding homeless sweeps that was responsible for 19 deaths. And there is much rejoicing because this will save lives of the poor and downtrodden? Nope, “compassionate” left wing activists are furious. 

“Tax the Rich—Or Mamdani Will Tax You All” is the headline on Nicole Gelinas’ latest City Journal piece. Galinas observes:

[T]he guy who couldn’t stop smiling last year insists the city is in crisis now. Why? He needs a crisis to push through his proposed $9 billion in annual new taxes on high earners and corporations. He wants to raise taxes for the sake of raising taxes—and the governor, who must sign off on any such increases, won’t cooperate. Last year, Mamdani wanted these tax hikes partly to pay for his universal childcare plan. Instead, the governor swiftly agreed earlier this year to fund the plan’s gradual rollout with existing state revenues.

Meanwhile, a City Counsel member warns Mamdani that his plan not to add 5,000 police will make the city less safe. Meanwhile, a mob tormented police officers during the snow emergency:

Mayor Zohran Mamdani has been blasted for fueling anti-cop hate after an unruly mob launched a “disgusting” snowball attack on NYPD officers during Monday’s blizzard.

Former Police Commissioner Bill Bratton calls upon Mamdani not to eliminate NYPD’s Strategic Response Group, which keeps protesters safe and does much more.

Police aren’t the only New Yorkers feeling undervalued by the Mayor. “’Jim Snow 2.0′: Critics blast Mamdani’s $19 snow jobs after $30 wage pledge” explains that Mamdani wants you to pay a high minimum wage from which he exempts himself. Give the kid a break—this is the first time he’s ever had to make payroll.

Dumb Like You. Ms. Must thought Andrew Stiles’ Free Beacon piece on California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s racial pandering might be satire. Nobody could be that dumb. But no. Somebodu is that dumb. CBS has a story on the pandering and Newsom’s (dumb) attempt to blame the fallout on “MAGA bigotry:”

Newsom spoke Sunday with [Atlanta Mayor Andre] Dickens in front of a packed auditorium, reflecting on his academic challenges. “I’m not trying to impress you, I’m just trying to impress upon you I’m like you, I’m not better than you,” Newsom said. “I’m a 960 SAT guy and you know, I’m not trying to offend anyone — you know — trying to act all there if you got 940 — but literally, a 960 SAT guy. You’ve never seen me read a speech because I cannot read a speech. Maybe the wrong business to be.” 

Another prominent Golden State politician has yet to make public her SAT scores but I for one would be interested.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is a fool and a knave. But Wall Street Journal columnist Gerard Baker writes that “Even Contemptible Men Don’t Deserve Mob Justice.” The “militant wing of Epstein mania” is beginning to worry me.

Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead writes that the tariff battles are far from over.  Limits will only inspire President Trump to for alternatives to search to increase his leverage at home and abroad. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal complains that (in the opinion of the Editorial Board) the President’s new basis for tariffs is “a relic of a bygone era.”  FedEx is suing the administration for return of tariff revenues taken so far. President Trump “smacked” the tariffs in the lead-up to tonight’s speech. National Review’s Jeffrey Blehar deduces:

Yes, tonight’s State of the Union address is probably going to be a dumpster fire, or, for that matter, a zeppelin fire. Donald Trump has already warned: “It’s going to be a long speech. Because we have a lot to talk about.” (Imagine the futility of speechwriting for Trump, knowing that a full 65 percent of your material will never be spoken, given his improvisational tendencies.)

Don’t Miss. There was a wonderful tribute to the kind of masculinity personified in the US hockey team in the Examiner. It’s headlined “The US hockey team knelt — and that is what matters.”   I don’t know as much as I should about sports, but I was blown away by this piece.

Blue Wednesday: Mamdani Revolution. Dems Take Virginia and New Jersey. Assassination Fantasies No Hindrance to Top Law Job. More

No way to sugar coat last night’s election results. The stunner has to be that New York actually did it. “New York City Has Fallen, Socialist Mamdani Elected Mayor” is Townhall’s headline. Not to be outdone, the New York Post cover features diabolical looking Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani brandishing a hammer and sickle: “On Your Marx, Get Set Zo!”

“Mamdani’s Revolution Has Arrived” is the lead story at The Free Press. “The old rules don’t apply. The new fault lines are clear,” TFP writer Olivia Reingold proposes. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, is headlined “Zohran Mamdani Captures New York:”

Zohran Mamdani won his race for mayor on Tuesday, and it wasn’t close. The people have spoken, for better or worse, and his voters were willing to take a risk on his radicalism in the name of change. We’ll soon learn if the 34-year-old Assemblyman has a pragmatic streak or sees his mission as making the city that never sleeps a socialist lab experiment.

New York is arguably the greatest city in the world. But is Mamdani’s win an omen for the future of all big cities in the U.S.? “Mamdani Heralds the Radical American City” is the headline on a Joel Kotkin take at Unherd. Kotkin writes:

The greatest threat to the United States is self-created and centred in urban areas. Having survived the pandemic and the 2020 “summer of love”, America’s cities — most critically, New York — are adopting politics that seem designed to make the much-feared “urban doom loop” a reality.

Instead of facing up to their fundamental challenges in liveability and economic viability, the Big Apple and other cities such as Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, and Chicago are falling for full-spectrum progressives. …

Cities, of course, can fight back against these trends by developing policies that encourage urban economic growth, something barely mentioned in the DSA and other Leftist forums. Through reasonable taxation, less regulation, and the nurturing of local high-wage industries, from light manufacturing to video production, an early generation of practically minded urbanists helped restore order and growth. Mayors Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg in New York, Bob Lanier and Bill White in Houston, Richard Riordan in Los Angeles, Ed Rendell in Philadelphia and Steve Goldsmith in Indianapolis showed how cities can come back.

“Localize the Intifada: Mamdani Seizes New York City Mayoralty” is the headline on the Free Beacon’s lead story early this morning. AOC says that the Dems can no longer deny that Mamdani is the future. Pollster Mark Penn acknowledges the big moment for the left but argues that leftward tilt will ultimately endanger the Dems. Writing in the London Spectator, Heather Mac Donald is blunt: “Zohran Mamdani Will Destroy New York.” Mamdani made sure to taunt President Trump in his victory speech.

The mayor’s race was only the beginning. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal says that the Dems began a comeback last night and calls the election results “a warning” to the GOP. Abigail Spanberger will succeed Republican Glenn Youngkin as Governor of Virginia, having won 55 percent of the vote to Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears 45 percent. There will be an effort to portray Spanberger as “a moderate,” though in reality Spanberger’s “radical agenda” will “threaten women’s spaces safeguarded under the previous administration.” Spanberger opposed the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act.  

In New Jersey, Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli extending her party’s 12-year hold on the Governor’s Mansion. The gender gap was crucial to Sherrill’s win:

There was also a 20-point gender gap: about 6 in 10 women backed Sherrill while about 5 in 10 men favored Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s domination among women continued across all age groups, with her highest level of support coming from women under 30.

As with Spanberger, there will be an effort to depict Sherrill as “a moderate,” but her record shows otherwise. It was the Republican Ciattarelli who signed the Stand with Women Commitment.  

California Governor Gavin Newsom wasn’t running, but he nevertheless scored a victory: Californians voted “yes” on Proposition 50, which will allow Newsom’s redistricting plan, which could determine who wins the House next year.

“Democrats Embrace the Fringe—From Socialists to Assassination Nuts,” according to Ben Domenech, who writes:

The voters spoke Tuesday night, and rather than reject Democrat extremism, they embraced it emphatically.

In New Jersey and Virginia, two fake moderates — high-test resume female candidates practically built in a lab by the party establishment, who nonetheless hold to extreme leftist views on social policy — cruised to victory, in line with polls and the expectations of the political elite.

None of the outcomes were surprises, except perhaps one — the Virginia Attorney General race, where Jay Jones, the bloody-minded partisan who was exposed for openly fantasizing about murdering a Republican political opponent and hoping his children died in their mother’s arms, won handily.

Kudos to whoever wrote this spot on headline for the lefty Slate: “It Turns Out You Can Fantasize About Your Colleague’s Kids Getting Shot and Still Win an Election.”

But there was a small race that will bring a glimmer of hope to Republicans. The infamous Loudoun County elected a school board member opposed to transgender ideology. Fox Digital reports that Senate Democrats are “eyeing” a way to end the government shutdown, while the Hill reports that Senate Democrats who want to end the shutdown are getting pushback. Uncertainty about food stamps grows, while air travel interruptions are on the upswing. Will last night’s election results embolden the Democrats to continue the shutdown or decide that it’s safe to climb down now?

The Supreme Court hears oral arguments about President Trump’s tariffs today. This is one of the most consequential economic cases in decades. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal, which has been adamantly opposed to the Trump tariffs, argues that Trump’s sweeping tariffs are “a bridge too far.” In addition to the constitutional issues, we’re all wondering how this will affect our finances. The Washington Post explores how this will hit our pocketbooks. Just one more tidbit of economic news: Private payrolls rose 42,000 in October, more than expected and countering labor market fears, ADP says.

The odd thing about homelessness is that the more money that’s spent on affordable housing and other supposed remedies, the more homelessness. Ned Ryun says that this is part of the “ruling class/Democrat Party Leviathan.”  Ryun writes:

Every year, Americans pour billions of dollars into programs meant to “end homelessness”—through taxes, through donations, through good intentions. And yet the tents multiply. The needles pile up. The despair deepens. The reason isn’t failure. It’s design.

The crisis sustains the bureaucracy that claims to fight it. The administrative state has simply built a new limb of itself—what the Capital Research Center rightly calls the “Homeless Industrial Complex.” In truth, it’s a Homeless Leviathan: a vast, unelected empire of nonprofits, bureaucrats, and activists, united not by compassion but by ideology and the pursuit of power.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney died yesterday. I. Lewis—Scooter–Libby recalls Mr. Cheney as “a champion of free markets and conservative values during his long lifetime of public service” in today’s Wall Street Journal. Byron York examines “Dick Cheney’s Complicated Legacy:”

In the case of Cheney, here was a man with broad and deep knowledge of how the world and the U.S. government worked, who dedicated himself to protecting the United States in the aftermath of the worst terrorist attack in history, who meant well — and who made terrible mistakes that ensured his time in office would be seen as a failure.

Cheney’s time in office also changed Republican politics. It is impossible to imagine the 2016 GOP primary race going the way it did absent the legacy of the Bush-Cheney administration. The Bush-Cheney team was in the field in 2016 in the person of Jeb Bush. Candidate Donald Trump took great delight in bashing Jeb, and he was remarkably effective at it.

A long ago brave new world.

Linda Sarsour: I’ll Be Mamdani’s Nanny. Bad Things Dems Might Do without the Filibuster. Antisemitism Debate on Right. KJP Destroys Faith in DEI. And More

Remember Women’s March co-founder Linda Sarsour?

Well, if socialist Zohran Mamdani becomes Mayor of New York tomorrow, we’ll see a lot more of Ms. Sarsour.

Asra Nomani explains:

Palestinian-American activist Linda Sarsour issued a thinly veiled warning Saturday night to New York City mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani, saying she will “hold Zohran accountable” to fulfill campaign promises, including dismantling an NYPD unit that polices terrorism threats, protests and riots.

In a livestream on Instagram, obtained by Fox News Digital, Sarsour told her followers that electing Mamdani doesn’t mean that the network that supports him will “let him do whatever the hell he wants when he gets to City Hall.”…

A member of the Democratic Socialists of America along with Mamdani, Sarsour has been like a political mentor to Mamdani. In 2017, they canvassed together for a city council candidate, Khader El-Yateem, endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, in a race he lost. Not long after, Mamdani joined the board of the Muslim Democratic Club of New York, which Sarsour co-founded. She endorsed Mamdani’s winning race for the New York General Assembly and was an early supporter when he announced his race for the mayor’s job.

Ms. Sarsour is an interesting character.

The New York Post has pulled out the stops. A New York Post editorial is headlined “20 reasons to vote against NYC mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani.” The first two reasons: He Hates the Police. He Really Hates the Police. An antisemitism watchdog has posted a video about the intention of Mamdani allies to take over the Democratic Party from within—rather than refute it, the Mamdani camp loves it. Let’s call it the Trojan Horse Theory. Early voting in the mayor’s race ends with a record 735,000 ballots cast and a surge of young voters.

Former President Barack Obama called Mamdani to offer to be his sounding board, but when it came to an official endorsement from the former President it was “No, Thank You, Mam.” New York Post columnist Michael Goodwin argues that a Mamdani win would be a “long, sour decline” for New York,

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears is polling behind Democrat Abigail Spanberger but has a good piece on Fox Digital outlining the reasons she wants to be Governor. The New Jersey Governor’s race between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Dem Rep. Mikie Sherrill is this close. Utterly Predictable: Mollie Jong-Fast visits the Sherrill campaign and finds a double standard for female candidates. Whatever happens, Liberal Patriot Ruy Teixeira says the forecast for Dems is “rainy at best.”

Republicans have pushed back on President Trump’s call to end the government shutdown by killing the filibuster. Powerline’s John Hinderaker lists several bad things Dems would do if the filibuster were killed. The sticking point for Dems is extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. The Wall Street Journal’s Allysia Finley explains how blue-city politicians use ObamaCare to bail out their cities at the taxpayer’s expense:

Mayor Rahm Emanuel of Chicago was scrambling to close a $369 million deficit in 2013. The inception of ObamaCare offered an enticing target for cost shaving: retiree health coverage. …

So Mr. Emanuel dumped his city’s retirees onto the nascent ObamaCare exchanges, where federal subsidies can reduce premium payments. Voilà, Chicago’s $2.1 billion unfunded retiree healthcare liability vanished. Now U.S. taxpayers pick up the tab for Chicago’s retirees in their 50s and early 60s.

Chicago isn’t alone in trying this neat fiscal trick. Detroit, Stockton, Calif., and San Bernardino, Calif., also saved billions by shifting pre-Medicare retirees to ObamaCare when they filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy in the 2010s. That minimized cuts to workers’ compensation and pensions. Detroit’s $170 million annual retiree healthcare bill made up nearly 20% of its general fund budget, one of the city’s biggest costs.

Other municipalities may move retirees to ObamaCare to avoid layoffs and tax hikes. ObamaCare could soon became a safety valve for underwater cities.

Maverick Democratic Senator John Fetterman, meanwhile, is slamming his party over the continuing government shutdown, particularly noting that food stamp benefits have run out for 42 million recipients. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that the food benefits could be restarted by Wednesday. But 42 million on food stamps? Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says her agency has found massive fraud in the program, which must be investigated.

Time to talk about something deeply unpleasant. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal is headlined “The New Right’s Antisemites,” which charges that Kevin Roberts of the Heritage Foundation “floundered” in addressing questions about Tucker Carlson and someone called Nick Fuentes:

On Thursday Mr. Roberts released a startling video to oppose the alleged “cancellation” of Tucker Carlson and even of Hitler fanboy Nick Fuentes, whom Mr. Carlson had hosted for a chummy podcast interview.

“I want to be clear about one thing: Christians can critique the state of Israel without being antisemitic,” Mr. Roberts began, sounding like what William F. Buckley Jr. used to call “a pyromaniac in a field of straw men.” This is what Hamas supporters on the left say: What do you mean? We were only criticizing Israel. Not exactly.

On Monday’s Carlson show, Mr. Fuentes assailed “organized Jewry” as the obstacle to American unity and “these Zionist Jews” as the impediment to the right’s success, while calling himself a fan of Joseph Stalin. Even while toning it down for the largest audience he’ll ever have, Mr. Fuentes still came off as an internet mashup of the worst of the 20th century.

Scott Johnson of Powerline has two powerful takes (here and here) on this painful matter. The Free Press devoted no fewer than four stories to the issue, including an interview with Senator Ted Cruz by ace reporter Peter Savrodnik. Erick Erickson writes about “The Moral Rot Eating the American Right.” But it’s not just the Right that’s yummy. Maine senatorial hopeful Graham Platner says the controversy over his Nazi tattoos has made him a better candidate.

I didn’t watch President Trump’s “60 Minutes” interview—something tells me I’ll have a chance catch him on TV sometime this week—but here is the Real Clear Politics summary.

A mass stabbing on a train to London left eleven injured with two victims sustaining life-threatening injuries. The sub headline says, “Police make two arrests, say they have seen no sign of terrorist motive.” Regarding that, I agree with Powerline:

As for motive, they are positive that they know what it isn’t but have no clue as to what it is.

I was interested that a London Telegraph story that noted that “a British-born suspect” had been questioned. “A British-born subject” is a curious description. Another Powerline post highlights that the authorities haven’t yet told us who the suspects are, despite having had plenty of time to collect their identities. Hot Air’s Beege Welborn explores the recent spate of stabbing in the U.K. in “Two* Fellows Went All Stabby on a British Train Yesterday.”

Catesby Leigh is a co-founder of the National Civic Art Society, which waged a worthy and valiant battle against having Frank Gehry create a memorial for President Eisenhower. It has a lot of conservatives in its ranks, and when Leigh writes about architecture, it’s always good. So I’m at least inclined to pay attention to Leigh’s “The Original Trump Ballroom Design Was Good. The Expansion? Less So,” in the Washington Post.

Ken Burns is so slouch when it comes to promoting his documentaries. His forthcoming magnum opus is “The American Revolution.” “Ken Burns on America’s Origin Story: “The Most Important Event Since the Birth of Christ” is the headline on a CBS interview with Burns.

The Karine Jean-Pierre trainwreck continues. Andrew Stiles, who reviewed her book for the Free Beacon, says that it’s so awful that it has shaken Democrats’ faith in DEI. Not that KJP was a DEI hire or anything.

Bombs Aweigh Friday: CNN Bombs & Misses! Mamdani Hits NYC’s Dem Establishment Hard. Biden’s Debate Bomb Anniversary Is Today & More   

What was wrong with the CNN “report” that U.S. air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites had—so to speak—bombed? Aren’t intrepid journalists supposed to pursue the truth wherever it takes them, regardless of whether they offend people in high places?

Well, yeah. But the Free Beacon explains why CNN, which relied on a faulty document from an agency that is not held in high regard to discredit the Trump-ordered air strikes, likely was duped. By the Iranians. Talk about bombing! The Free Beacon reports:

The U.S. intelligence community deemed that initial assessment “low-confidence,” a fact CNN omitted from its original piece, and based it solely on satellite imagery and intercepted communications—known as signals intelligence, or SIGINT—from Iranian officials. Shortly after the assessment leaked, Axios reported that communications intercepted by Israel “suggest Iranian military officials have been giving false situation reports to the country’s political leadership—downplaying the extent of the damage.” Such communications likely made their way into the DIA report, according to three former U.S. intelligence operatives, a current U.S. official, and other veteran national security insiders who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon both on and off the record. Some of them referred to the DIA as the “discount intelligence agency.”

“It’s basically messaging by the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], messaging by Tehran,” said Michael Pregent, a former intelligence officer with U.S. Central Command who operated in the Middle East for nearly 30 years. “DIA is taking a SIGINT report from the National Security Agency … and putting together an assessment to leak. I know it’s messaging, the Iranians know it’s messaging, and for some reason, NSA believes it’s actual f—ing intelligence.”

A current U.S. official familiar with the ongoing damage assessment process said that the DIA’s findings—as well as “the partisan hit job published by CNN”—have been “completely debunked” over the past 24 hours, including by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“Trump Bombs the Leak Machine” is the headline on Kimberley Strassel’s Wall Street Journal this morning. There is a good reason for the Trump administration to act decisively:

The Trump team went all-in this week countering the DIA report, with updates and briefings laying out the damage from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, military officials, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and the White House press team. The president pressed his claims of success in 21 posts on Truth Social on Wednesday alone and piled on news outlets. The administration also opened an investigation into the leak and suggested it might limit some classified information-sharing with Congress.

This has put much of the media on the back foot, engaged in a lot of throat-clearing about the “fog” of intelligence and the precise definition of “obliteration.” CNN, hilariously, continues to refuse to take the loss, and instead ran a piece suggesting the administration’s “hyperemotional” response to “honest questioning” only makes it “look defensive.” Sure.

The White House has good reason to move quickly in correcting the record and sending a message. The leaks are designed to do political damage, and the administration knows from the first term how real that damage can be.

The CNN reporter who broke the Iran story was Natasha Bertrand, dubbed a “CIA stenographer” by Miranda Devine. Ms. Bertrand’s most illustrious scoop previously concerned the 51 former intelligence agents who claimed that Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinformation. It was not. (Poignant Aside: Hunter is once again having trouble keeping current on his debts.)

Meanwhile, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in an interview with Fox’s Brett Baier that the Iran air strikes were “a hot in the arm” for American credibility. Rice, who served in the George W. administration, did mention any President or former President by name, but she did dwell on the Afghanistan withdrawal as catastrophic for American prestige. Amazing interview. Is Brett Baier inheriting the world’s greatest interviewer mantle of Oriana Fallaci?

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill be ready in time to land on President Trump’s desk on July 4? The Senate Parliamentarian has rejected key proposals regarding Medicaid.  A Yahoo story crows that “she’s unelected, unknown and has the power to veto Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill.” In “About Those ‘Millions’ Losing Medicaid,” Wall Street Journal explains that they fall into two categories: able-bodied recipients who won’t work even part-time, and illegal aliens.

Who put socialist Zohran Mamdani over the top and made him New York’s likely next Mayor? Veteran political sage Michael Barone characterizes Mamdani’s support:

Mamdani won by huge margins from the same constituency that cast the critical votes for [Mayor Brandon] Johnson in Chicago. It’s the same constituency that in 2021 in New York was the base of Maya Wiley, who won slightly more first-choice votes than Kathryn Garcia, whose base was affluent Manhattan, but fewer than the winner, incumbent New York City Mayor Eric Adams, whose base was Blacks in Brooklyn and Queens.

I have called this constituency the “barista proletariat,” made up of people with temporary jobs in service industries, nonprofit organizations or media, perpetual grad students or adjunct lecturers who supplement their incomes often by gaming welfare systems and working off the books. You could see them as economic parasites on Manhattan’s rich finance and media wealth. They prefer to see themselves as cultural rebels against the larger society’s complacency and intolerance.

In a similar vein, Ms. Must’s favorite demographer Joel Kotkin explains at Spiked Online why Mamdani’s “progressive intifada” will be a disaster for New York:  

By roughly four to one, Americans favour much higher taxes on the rich, longer holidays and government-imposed cuts to pharmaceutical prices. Rising inequality and the fear of downward mobility drive support for expanded government and wealth redistribution.

Yet it would be a mistake to see Mamdani’s success in New York as a precursor to left-wing victories at the national level. The problem for such candidates is that most middle- and working-class Americans don’t protest, much less riot, when their cities and states go downhill – they just move somewhere less stressed and more promising, mostly to the suburbs. Those who remain in the cities are now totally unrepresentative of America as a whole.

Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, despite having been walloped by Mamdani, so far plans to stay in the race. Current New York Mayor Eric Adams, whose term was hijacked by the illegal migrant crisis, is running as an Independent. Republican Curtis Sliwa is refusing pleas to drop out so the anti-Mamdani vote can coalesce. City Journal’s Jesse Arm has suggestions for NYC powerbrokers, including the tantalizing notion of persuading NYPD  Commissioner Jessica Tisch to run.

“Everything Conservatives Said about Joe Biden Got Exposed One Year Ago Today” is the headline on Matt Vesta’s reminiscence of then-sorta President Joe Biden’s catastrophic debate. The House Oversight Committee is valiantly trying to figure out who the real President was back then. Alas, the Committee had to subpoena Doctor Biden’s suddenly shy “work husband” Anthony Bernal to come and testify.

I can’t end without mentioning “Alligator Alcatraz,” a proposed detention center for illegal aliens with criminal histories in Florida’s scenic Everglades. The BBC notes:

The facility, in the middle of a Miami swamp, was proposed by state lawmakers to support US President Donald Trump’s deportation agenda.

“You don’t need to invest that much in the perimeter. If people get out, there’s not much waiting for them other than alligators and pythons,” explains the state’s attorney general, James Uthmeier, a Republican, in a video set to rock music and posted on social media.

It’s not a sure thing—environmentalist and tribal leaders are fighting it tooth and nail. But I do look forward to feigning innocence and saying to my liberal friends, “Goodness gracious, they’ll be perfectly unharmed unless they get naughty and try to escape.” Just kidding. Or not.